ECON 2028(60)                                                                                                                            Dr. Margaret Malixi

Spring 2022

The Economic Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic

Context: 

Providing an informed assessment of the economy and making realistic forecasts based on available data and information, are major tasks of macroeconomists.  Using actual macroeconomic data from 2018 to the most current period that data is available and information from published economic articles, you are to make an assessment and forecast of the U.S. economy as well as evaluate the economic impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic.  You are to write a single-spaced, two-page article entitled, “The Economic Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic” for submission to Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting,an economic periodical.

You are to download data on various macroeconomic indicators from 2018 to whatever data is available for 2022 from the Canvas Course Homepage.  Please follow the steps below to conduct your analysis and forecast:

(1)  The macroeconomic data available to you is either monthly or quarterly datafor 2021 depending on availability.  The first step is to be able to provide an annual value for each indicator.Simply fill in the values in Table 1 below for 2018 – 2020.  You are then to analyze the data for the major macroeconomic indicators from 2018 – 2020.

(2) Next, you are to make an informed forecast for 2021 and 2022 based on available data for the months or quarters for which data is available for 2021 and 2022.  You are to also use as sources any published forecasts by economists.  Using the available data for 2021 and 2022 make and justify your forecast for 2021 and 2022. Make sure to fully explain the thought process supporting your forecast.  Using the concepts and theories learned in class would be a good idea.  Fill in the values for your annual forecasts for 2021 and 2022 in Table 1.

(3)  Lastly, explain the impact of massive spending programs (Trump: $2.3 Trillion and Biden: $1.9 Trillion) on each of the economic indicators.  Explain the changes in the economic indicators that could be troubling.  What changes would be worrisome for future economic conditions?  Suggest policies that could mitigate a negative outcome.

(4)  Your article should be two single-spaced pages in length in 12-point font, including the completed Table 1.  You are to  write a grammatically correct and well-organized article.  Make sure that your name appears below the title of your article.

Table 1:  Annual Data

Macroeconomic Indicator	2018	2019	2020	2021 (Your Forecast)	2022 (Your Forecast)
Growth Rate of Real GDP (%)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Inflation Rate (%)
Prime Interest Rate (%)