Term Project Performance of Investing in the Housing Market

From https://fred.stlouisfed.org/, download rates for 1) 1-year Treasury constant maturity rates, 2) 10-year Treasury constant maturity rates, and 3) 30-year Treasury constant maturity rates from the end of January 2005 to the end of September 2022. Then work on the following tasks: a. Describe the patterns of three interest rate series. b. Calculate the spreads between 1-year and 10-years and the spreads between 1-year and 30 years over time and plot spreads. c. Make a comparison between the spreads at the end of September 2022 and those at the end of September 2019. Then provide your interpretation why the spreads are different in these two time points. d. Is US heading towards a recession? Please offer explanations for your conclusion. You may refer to the following figure on U.S. GDP growth rates. Information about Q&As of U.S. recessions can be found at https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle- dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions.     

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